HKS Trace Paper

The Architecture profession has experienced a major shift in the last 12 months.  We have witnessed the end of an era and are balancing on the edge of a new beginning.  Exactly what that beginning is remains to be seen; are we coming out of a  periodic downturn that is the natural economic rhythm of expansion and contraction or are we involved in something more profound and of a greater more lasting significance.  I happen to think it is much of the latter but some of the former.  We have experienced an unprecedented explosion in building activity throughout the world and clearly that kind of growth could not be sustained…..a slowdown had to happen even if you don’t factor in the housing and financial institution implosion.  But, on the other hand the world population is growing and a new wave of enfranchised middle class in countries like India, Brazil and China will push demand for many of the same building types that have been developed through other parts of the world in the last 15 years. Also, as the U.S. and world population ages, demand for healthcare and leisure activities will continue to be strong. 

So…. I’m bullish on the future of design – but design of a different animal.  I believe the following will hold true: 

• The building boom is over for some time.
• Competition for planned projects will be fierce.
• A new era of straightforward, conceptually strong, simple buildings will emerge. 
• We will see the end of ego driven iconic structures standing alone, detached from any dialogue with other buildings or the greater context in which they sit.
• Architects will need to understand our clients business and be an ally to their bottom line.
• Architects will be selling value, lean design and quality project management.
• Sustainable design concepts will be the expected norm – something we must do.
• We SHOULD try to grab back some of the momentum and responsibility we have lost to other “consultant”.  We should be the collaborators/authors of the design vision and partners in the process to get us there.
• We will need to develop full, robust intelligent design solutions.
• Through all this we should emerge as thought leaders – Holders of the intellectual capital.

It is an exciting time to be in the design profession with all this upheaval and posturing for the next wave.  I personally welcome a more controlled and thoughtful design discourse going forward.  Periods of slower more sustainable growth often produce histories most lasting, meaningful work. Worldwide demand will be in place; if we react to the next wave thoughtfully and with passionate leadership we may find ourselves leading the movement of one of the most significant periods of architectural design the world has ever seen.